Rates near 6.7%. Demand stopped falling anyway.

Back in June, the working assumption on this blog was that 30-year rates would settle into a 6.0%–6.4% band through the rest of 2026. That forecast broke. Rates pushed higher instead — and Seattle-area buyer traffic stabilized at the same time. Here's why those two things aren't a contradiction.

Where rates actually landed

The Federal Reserve held its benchmark rate at 3.50%–3.75% at its late-July meeting — the fifth consecutive pause — and signaled no cuts before year-end. Notably, three policymakers wanted to raise rates rather than hold, a more hawkish tone than the unanimous hold in June. Freddie Mac's 30-year average moved with that signal, touching the highest level in over a year and trading in the high 6.6%–6.9% range through the first week of August.

That is meaningfully above the 6.0%–6.4% range this blog cited as the consensus forecast just two months ago. Worth saying plainly: forecasters missed, and planning around a hoped-for rate drop remains the wrong strategy.

The part that should have gotten worse, and didn't

Higher, stickier rates are exactly the condition that usually pushes buyer traffic down further. Instead, King County showings were roughly flat month over month in July — a sharp change from June's much steeper decline — and five of the nine communities we track saw buyer traffic actually rise, up from just one market the month before.

The county median sale price closed July at exactly $1,000,000, its first year-over-year gain in months, after dipping below the mark in June. None of that required rates to fall. It required buyers to stop waiting for them to.

Why higher rates and steadier demand can coexist

• The rate shock is now old news. Buyers who needed 5% rates to make the math work left the market a while ago. The people showing up in July's data have already budgeted for a 6-handle.
• Inventory is doing the work rates used to do. Homes for sale are up more than 31% year over year in King County, at 3.8 months of supply. More choice gives buyers room to act even without cheaper financing.
• "Higher for longer" removes the incentive to wait. With the Fed signaling no cuts through year-end and a few members open to a hike, there is no clear rate-drop catalyst left to wait for — which paradoxically gets sidelined buyers moving again.

What this changes if you're buying

Qualify at today's rate, not a hoped-for one, and treat any future refinance as a bonus rather than the plan. The math that works at 6.7% today is the math you should trust — if it only works at 6.0%, the home is not yet affordable for you, regardless of what forecasters expect next year.

What this changes if you're selling

Demand stabilizing is good news, but it is not a return to bidding-war conditions. Price to July's comparable sales, not to a memory of 2021 financing conditions. A well-priced home in a market with rising buyer traffic still moves quickly; an ambitiously priced one now competes against 31% more inventory than a year ago.

Figures: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, late July 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, early August 2026; NWMLS Showings Report and Local Market Update, July 2026 activity.