The Fed hiked. Rates crossed 7%. Our data hasn't caught up.

In August we wrote that mortgage rates near 6.7% hadn't stopped Seattle-area buyer demand from stabilizing. September changed the rate picture. The Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate after five straight holds, and the 30-year mortgage average was above 7% at its latest reading. Here's what that does to a payment — and why the newest local market numbers don't yet show any of it.

What happened in September

• The Fed hiked. On September 16 the Federal Open Market Committee raised its target range by a quarter point to 3.75%–4.00%, on a unanimous 12–0 vote. That ended five consecutive holds at 3.50%–3.75%; in July, three policymakers had already wanted to raise. The statement's own words: “Inflation remains elevated.”
• Mortgage rates rose too. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average went from 6.76% (September 10) to 6.95% (September 17) to 7.03% (September 24). A year earlier, the same week, it was 6.30%. The 15-year average was 6.42%.

What 7% does to a monthly payment

Take a $740,000 loan — 20% down on August's $925,000 King County median house price. Principal and interest on a 30-year fixed:

• At last September's 6.30%: about $4,580 a month.
• At this week's 7.03%: about $4,938 a month.

That's roughly $358 more every month — about $4,300 a year — for the identical house. (This is our own arithmetic, principal and interest only; taxes, insurance and any HOA come on top.) The house didn't change. The financing did.

What August's data can't tell you

The NWMLS figures in our September report describe August. Both the Fed's move and the 7% reading came after August ended, so none of it is in those numbers — including the broad rebound in buyer showings we cover in this month's city-by-city post. Closed sales also lag: a home that closes in September was mostly negotiated weeks earlier, at earlier rates.

The report covering September activity, due in October, is the first that could show any effect. Until then, treat August's demand rebound as a snapshot of buyers who had already budgeted for a high-6% rate — not as proof that 7% won't matter.

What we won't tell you

Where rates go from here. This blog cited a 6.0%–6.4% consensus back in June, that forecast missed, and we said so plainly in August. Nothing in September makes us better at guessing. What we can do is show you what today's rate costs and plan around that.

If you're buying

• Run every number at today's rate, not a hoped-for one. If a home only works at 6.3%, it doesn't work yet.
• Get a written lender quote and ask about rate locks. With rates moving a quarter point in a couple of weeks, when you lock matters.
• Use the inventory. With King County listings up about 40% on last year (details in our price-versus-demand post), seller-paid rate buydowns and closing credits are worth asking for in a way they weren't in 2021.

If you're selling

Your buyer's payment on the same price is meaningfully higher than a year ago, and they know it. Price to what buyers can actually finance, not to a memory of last spring, and expect payment-sensitive negotiation. A home that is priced right and presented well gives itself the best chance; an ambitiously priced one now competes with a lot more inventory.

Figures: Federal Reserve FOMC statement, September 16, 2026; Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, releases of September 17 and September 24, 2026; NWMLS Local Market Update, King County, August 2026. Payment comparisons are our own calculation.